Nonlinear Learned Filter Suite

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The promoted unsupervised baseline structured_joint_elbo_h4_w005_predictive_y_masked_y_spans_h4 is a partial success for robustness, not a solved nonlinear strict filter; divergence/family rows should be compared against it.

x pattern	Model	signal	Steps	state NLL	ref state NLL	cov 90	ref cov 90	var ratio	pred-y NLL	pred NLL	ref pred NLL
weak_sinusoidal	EKF-residualized nonlinear MC ELBO + joint h4 w0.05, predictive-y, and masked-y spans h4	unsupervised	1000	15.965449	2.738192	0.397705	0.908366	0.088379	0.318788	0.319024	0.296951
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k8	unsupervised	1000	5.338509	2.738192	0.434001	0.908366	0.242303	0.331352	0.331403	0.296951
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k16	unsupervised	1000	5.292873	2.738192	0.419271	0.908366	0.261202	0.331298	0.331319	0.296951
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k32	unsupervised	1000	4.644018	2.738192	0.483561	0.908366	0.332984	0.331443	0.331428	0.296951
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture IWAE h4 k16 + predictive-y	unsupervised	1000	5.932719	2.738192	0.386149	0.908366	0.223663	0.331328	0.331399	0.296951
weak_sinusoidal	EKF-residualized nonlinear MC ELBO + joint h4 w0.05, predictive-y, and masked-y spans h4	unsupervised	1000	17.900330	2.776700	0.356934	0.877279	0.078612	0.328781	0.328955	0.305738
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k8	unsupervised	1000	4.165872	2.776700	0.503337	0.877279	0.197229	0.336165	0.336120	0.305738
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k16	unsupervised	1000	4.078058	2.776700	0.511068	0.877279	0.200843	0.336244	0.336202	0.305738
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k32	unsupervised	1000	4.266207	2.776700	0.493978	0.877279	0.187601	0.336305	0.336268	0.305738
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture IWAE h4 k16 + predictive-y	unsupervised	1000	4.255581	2.776700	0.494873	0.877279	0.186787	0.336060	0.336022	0.305738
weak_sinusoidal	EKF-residualized nonlinear MC ELBO + joint h4 w0.05, predictive-y, and masked-y spans h4	unsupervised	1000	10.149324	2.657798	0.433757	0.927490	0.102917	0.317410	0.317537	0.303765
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k8	unsupervised	1000	4.208476	2.657798	0.514404	0.927490	0.141747	0.332698	0.332695	0.303765
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k16	unsupervised	1000	3.973650	2.657798	0.532145	0.927490	0.155711	0.333602	0.333595	0.303765
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k32	unsupervised	1000	3.750569	2.657798	0.558268	0.927490	0.174048	0.333836	0.333827	0.303765
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture IWAE h4 k16 + predictive-y	unsupervised	1000	4.176056	2.657798	0.515869	0.927490	0.142162	0.332830	0.332831	0.303765
intermittent_sinusoidal	EKF-residualized nonlinear MC ELBO + joint h4 w0.05, predictive-y, and masked-y spans h4	unsupervised	1000	24.300824	2.732284	0.372966	0.914062	0.050397	0.372941	0.381795	0.346522
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k8	unsupervised	1000	5.139566	2.732284	0.433675	0.914062	0.285243	0.383589	0.391706	0.346522
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k16	unsupervised	1000	5.092268	2.732284	0.445882	0.914062	0.270450	0.383532	0.391942	0.346522
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k32	unsupervised	1000	5.056869	2.732284	0.440430	0.914062	0.274696	0.383453	0.391897	0.346522
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture IWAE h4 k16 + predictive-y	unsupervised	1000	5.162781	2.732284	0.441569	0.914062	0.263726	0.383509	0.391918	0.346522
intermittent_sinusoidal	EKF-residualized nonlinear MC ELBO + joint h4 w0.05, predictive-y, and masked-y spans h4	unsupervised	1000	26.128002	2.776782	0.349447	0.874349	0.071730	0.377186	0.387543	0.357559
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k8	unsupervised	1000	4.744861	2.776782	0.460205	0.874349	0.325965	0.392114	0.398457	0.357559
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k16	unsupervised	1000	4.208056	2.776782	0.498942	0.874349	0.309594	0.391340	0.398395	0.357559
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k32	unsupervised	1000	4.173729	2.776782	0.500570	0.874349	0.310566	0.391386	0.398414	0.357559
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture IWAE h4 k16 + predictive-y	unsupervised	1000	4.211083	2.776782	0.501221	0.874349	0.319076	0.391333	0.398299	0.357559
intermittent_sinusoidal	EKF-residualized nonlinear MC ELBO + joint h4 w0.05, predictive-y, and masked-y spans h4	unsupervised	1000	18.545874	2.654578	0.389404	0.926595	0.057823	0.370901	0.377351	0.352279
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k8	unsupervised	1000	4.214376	2.654578	0.522624	0.926595	0.143857	0.389682	0.397083	0.352279
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k16	unsupervised	1000	3.942927	2.654578	0.545166	0.926595	0.160839	0.390438	0.397831	0.352279
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k32	unsupervised	1000	3.774318	2.654578	0.563070	0.926595	0.175933	0.390848	0.398171	0.352279
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture IWAE h4 k16 + predictive-y	unsupervised	1000	4.416855	2.654578	0.509033	0.926595	0.131804	0.389455	0.396967	0.352279

Aggregate By Seed

x pattern	Model	Steps	seeds	state NLL	coverage 90	variance ratio
intermittent_sinusoidal	EKF-residualized nonlinear MC ELBO + joint h4 w0.05, predictive-y, and masked-y spans h4	1000	3	22.991567 +/- 3.230870	0.370605 +/- 0.016398	0.059983 +/- 0.008842
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture IWAE h4 k16 + predictive-y	1000	3	4.596907 +/- 0.408857	0.483941 +/- 0.030131	0.238202 +/- 0.078555
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k16	1000	3	4.414417 +/- 0.491382	0.496663 +/- 0.040564	0.246961 +/- 0.062959
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k32	1000	3	4.334972 +/- 0.535869	0.501356 +/- 0.050071	0.253732 +/- 0.056928
intermittent_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k8	1000	3	4.699601 +/- 0.379061	0.472168 +/- 0.037285	0.251689 +/- 0.078040
weak_sinusoidal	EKF-residualized nonlinear MC ELBO + joint h4 w0.05, predictive-y, and masked-y spans h4	1000	3	14.671701 +/- 3.293920	0.396132 +/- 0.031383	0.089969 +/- 0.009986
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture IWAE h4 k16 + predictive-y	1000	3	4.788118 +/- 0.810006	0.465630 +/- 0.056852	0.184204 +/- 0.033323
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k16	1000	3	4.448194 +/- 0.598798	0.487495 +/- 0.049003	0.205919 +/- 0.043216
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k32	1000	3	4.220265 +/- 0.366193	0.511936 +/- 0.033037	0.231544 +/- 0.071942
weak_sinusoidal	direct nonlinear K2 mixture windowed IWAE h4 k8	1000	3	4.570952 +/- 0.543023	0.483914 +/- 0.035582	0.193759 +/- 0.041125

The signal column classifies each training row as unsupervised, reference-distilled, or oracle-calibrated according to the objective weights used during training.