Alias Shrink Follow-Up

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Aggregate

variant	mean state NLL	mean pred-y NLL	mean cov90	min cov90	mean var ratio	max var ratio
k4_component_baseline	2.787505	0.522798	0.906386	0.886149	1.057096	1.153190
shrink0p9	2.794042	0.515595	0.864610	0.764893	0.884503	1.054112
shrink0p85	2.796066	0.516487	0.862820	0.760498	0.879307	1.047832
k5_full_weight	2.803440	0.524354	0.960802	0.951091	1.707011	2.178968
shrink0p95	2.818138	0.515596	0.869005	0.772380	0.888388	1.082455

Per Pattern

variant	x pattern	state NLL	pred-y NLL	cov90	var ratio
shrink0p85	intermittent_sinusoidal	2.757886	0.383787	0.912679	1.013147
shrink0p9	intermittent_sinusoidal	2.758564	0.383791	0.913086	1.016610
shrink0p95	intermittent_sinusoidal	2.760494	0.383809	0.916016	1.044760
k5_full_weight	intermittent_sinusoidal	2.786051	0.383725	0.951091	1.463762
k4_component_baseline	intermittent_sinusoidal	2.786885	0.384700	0.916504	1.121537
k4_component_baseline	random_normal	2.780498	0.852672	0.886149	0.896560
k5_full_weight	random_normal	2.835946	0.858119	0.979329	2.178968
shrink0p9	random_normal	2.855084	0.832043	0.764893	0.582786
shrink0p85	random_normal	2.861682	0.834718	0.760498	0.576943
shrink0p95	random_normal	2.922733	0.832046	0.772380	0.537950
shrink0p9	weak_sinusoidal	2.768477	0.330951	0.915853	1.054112
shrink0p85	weak_sinusoidal	2.768629	0.330955	0.915283	1.047832
shrink0p95	weak_sinusoidal	2.771189	0.330932	0.918620	1.082455
k5_full_weight	weak_sinusoidal	2.788323	0.331218	0.951986	1.478304
k4_component_baseline	weak_sinusoidal	2.795133	0.331022	0.916504	1.153190